European ICT market on the way to recovery, says Ovum

The European ICT market has finally turned the corner with a modest 4% growth expected for the period from 2004 to 2006, according to Ovum, the analyst and consulting company. However, the days of double-digit growth are well and truly over.

These findings are drawn from Ovum's EuroView Market Trends report, a new quarterly update on European ICT trends with a focus on the UK, Germany and France. France, Germany and the UK account for more than 50% of the ICT market, with the UK clearly in the lead in terms of growth.

'The UK is the most robust market, because it has already taken the medicine,' says Ovum Director, Richard Holway,. 'Measured by revenues, the majority of IT in the UK is now outsourced. But the greatest opportunities lie in Germany. The UK has also put out the welcome mat to off-shoring in contrast to France which has put up the barriers.'

'Strong competition in the telecoms sector is the other reason behind the UK's dynamism,' says Julian Hewett, who leads the EuroView team. 'The UK took the plunge first, France and Germany are now catching up.'

Across the region, the mobile sector has been the lifebuoy of the overall ICT sector, says Hewett. Germany and the UK had a fantastic year in 2003, with 14-15% growth rates. We think these will fall to 6-7% in the coming years.

Future growth will be due to the emergence of new data services. Consolidation is the theme that transcends all markets and all countries in Europe right now. Mature/low growth markets always consolidate. It is eventually the only way to boost market share and provide economies of scale so that earnings can grow too. Evidence of this trend can be found among others in:
* Software, where portfolio management will favour the strongest;
* IT Services, where you have to be big and financially secure even to afford to bid for many of the all-important outsourcing contracts;
* Mobile, where 3rd, 4th and 5th operators in some countries lack scale;
* Fixed telecoms, where small alternative networks look vulnerable.

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