Broadband set to rise to 41% of European Households by 2010

Western European residential broadband uptake has exploded in the past two years: adoption grew 81% in 2003 and continued to surge in 2004, achieving 28% growth in the first six months alone, according to Forrester Research report "European Residential Broadband Forecast: 2004 To 2010".

By 2010, European broadband penetration will reach 41% (72M households), which equals 67% of those online that year. The Forrester research, unlike most national and Pan-European data sources — such as ECTA, the European Commission, and national regulators - excludes business broadband lines and thus gives figures for residential broadband market numbers.

Lars Godell, principal analyst at Forrester Research, says that: 'By 2010, residential broadband penetration will top 45% in the Netherlands and Scandinavia thanks to their large proportions of online consumers, competitive markets, and relatively low broadband prices. The Netherlands will top the 2010 country charts with 54% penetration.'

Britain, France and Germany will see penetration between 35% and 45%. This lower figures is due to a mix of lower overall online penetration and higher broadband price premiums. 'Portugal, Greece, and Ireland continue to lag — penetration varies from 17% in Greece to 34% in Portugal — which is not surprising given these countries’ lower overall levels of Internet usage and PC ownership.'

Godell concludes: 'Massive price cuts are leading to a rapidly declining broadband premium. This, combined with a continued strong supplier push, provides a major incentive to the consumer to make the switch to broadband.'

Godell discusses the future of broadband technologies, suggesting that cable and other technologies like fibre, powerline, and fixed wireless technologies like WiMAX will continue to lose out to xDSL as 2010 approaches.

Forrester is an independent technology research company.

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