Review: Publicity, Pseudoscience and Usability

In Jakob Neilsen's latest Alert-box offering, "Improving usability guideline compliance", it is claimed that guideline compliance has increased by 4% over 1.5 years from 45% in late 2000 to a whopping great (hold on to your hats) 49% in mid-2002. It then goes on to state 'if this growth rate continues for another fifteen years we will reach full usability guideline compliance'.

Several things struck me here, if they haven't already struck you. The supposed growth rate of 4% over 1.5 years is presented as the mean with no indication of sample variation. I'm no statistical genius, but with sample sizes of 20 sites in 2000 and 15 in 2002, it is quite likely a figure such as 4% is purely due to sample variation and displays no significant increase.

Even if this claim were borne out by reliable evidence, would '90% guideline compliance in 2017' (changed from full guideline compliance) be such a good thing when the guidelines were 15 years old? This assumes the technology will not change and that modes of interaction remain static, and, in fact, human beings in general learn nothing more about the internet in the next 15 years. Essentially, all things remain the same except the usability, which appears to give a very limited view of the future of the Internet. What will the web-savvy next generation make of all this? Furthermore, even if I wanted to verify the claims made, I have to pay $45 (1 report) or $170 (the full series) to do so.

And whose guidelines are being referred to here anyway? I suspect they are indeed Mr. Neilsen's (though I didn't pay to check), though an important issue with guidelines is that they are most useful when they are built around the individual context of use. So, when guidelines are both static and not built around the context of use, is the level of compliance a good measure of usability?

In reality, if these figures tell any story, it is that compliance with Jakob's guidelines has not changed over the years, suggesting that maybe the Svengali of Usability's influence has reached saturation point (not a bad thing). It also suggests that the point of this analysis is, in fact, self-publicity. I realise that we were supposed to be in a JN ceasefire, but it does make me question whether such thinly veiled publicity masquerading as research does any of us any good, particularly in an age when people are become increasingly intolerant of spin.

The article then discusses key improvements in search (although Jared Spool maintains Search doesn't work) and other aspects of usability - with more links to expensive reports - but by that point the damage had been done and I felt wholly disinclined to trust the rest of the article.

This is not about taking a gratuitous pot-shot at one man who has been a tireless campaigner for the cause of usability, but it does smack a bit of clutching at straws to keep the wheels turning. Maybe it is time to slow down before something breaks and concentrate on the quality of the research for the benefit of us all.

Associated Link: Alertbox: Improving Usability Guideline Compliance

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